Despite market volatility, the synchronised global economic recovery has continued apace. In the UK, GDP forecasts were revised up to 1.6% on the back of this stronger growth, whilst we also saw wage growth exceed inflation for the first time in twelve months. However, this dip in inflation (to 2.5%) has caused the market to speculate that UK interest rates – and therefore bond yields – will not now rise as fast as previously thought.
The likely challenge over the next few years is likely to be to preserve, rather than seek higher returns on capital. This is particularly important given that global central banks are currently withdrawing monetary easing. We believe that active management will be crucial in this kind of market environment, particularly in the short-dated corporate credit space.